Bitcoin Cash to retrace, consolidate, and rally, all in 2024?

  • Bitcoin Cash witnessed a bullish market structure flip in recent months.
  • Whales have not yet begun to increase their holdings.

Bitcoin Cash [BCH] was trading at $259 on the 23rd of February. On the 3rd of March, it posted a local high of $529.2 before the prices pulled back to $417 at press time.

This run could play out similarly to how the previous rally in July 2023 went.

The $500 level was both a technical and psychological resistance level. While BCH did face rejection from just above this level, it set a milestone by reaching price levels not seen since December 2021.

Two sets of Fibonacci levels to solve the riddle

BCH 1-day ChartBCH 1-day Chart

Source: BCH/USDT on TradingView

In June 2023, Bitcoin Cash rallied from $90.3 to $329, a 264% move.

The Fibonacci levels (pale yellow) plotted showed that the 61.8% retracement level was tested 48 days after the local high back then was registered.

Thereafter, BCH prices consolidated between the $210 and $260 levels over the next 133 days.

There were a few attempted breakouts past $260 in between, but a sustained break and a retest of $260 only occurred in late February. Moreover, the 61.8% extension level at $476 was breached during the recent rally.

Similarly, it was likely that the next two months would likely see Bitcoin Cash fall to $337.6.

It is possible that six or more months later, a move to the 61.8% extension level of the current Fibonacci levels (dotted cyan) at $720.

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Accumulation has not yet begun

BCH SantimentBCH Santiment

Source: Santiment

The MVRV ratio climbed nearly as high as it did during June 2023, showing holders were at a large profit.

The mean coin age has trended downward since mid-December, when the market structure of BCH flipped bullishly.

This signaled holders have been selling their assets even as prices went higher. Investors would want to see this metric trend higher once more before looking to accumulate.

The total amount of holders fell from 26.55 million on the 15th of February to 25.87 million on the 11th of March.

This was another indication that holders were taking profit as prices rallied.

BCH Number of addresses supply distributionBCH Number of addresses supply distribution

Source: Santiment

An examination of the supply distribution by the number of addresses was interesting. The number of wallets holding under 1000 BCH has trended lower over the past month.

The 1k-100k BCH holding addresses have also fallen lower since mid-January.

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Two months after the June rally, the number of addresses with 1k-100k tokens climbed higher. This suggested whales accumulating during the consolidation phase.

During the coming months, investors could also watch out for this metric’s surge to add confluence to their bullish thesis.

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