- Bitcoin’s weekly trend over the past six months has been concerning
- An investigation of its on-chain metrics revealed that BTC’s top might be a year away
Bitcoin [BTC] has been on a slow downtrend since early June when it began to register lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. However, the Founder and CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju is confident that Bitcoin is still “mid-cycle.”
In a post on X, he highlighted that the BTC Coinbase spot volume dominance is back to its early 2024 levels, when spot ETF approval was yet to come. This was not a bullish development, and an increase in U.S investors is necessary to take Bitcoin to its highs.
AMBCrypto then used on-chain metrics to see whether the cycle is really only halfway through or not, and the results were hopeful.
Profit-taking behavior has long-term bullish implications
The UTXO age bands showed the percentage distribution of realized cap across different UTXO age bands. Here, the chart represents the ratio of the realized cap of spent UTXOs that were moved.
The 3-month to 2-year UTXO ages have sharper peaks and valleys in different parts of the cycle. Towards the market top, these age bands fall precipitously, forming bottoms roughly around the market top. The ensuing downtrend saw them climb higher, representing more holders re-entering the Bitcoin market as buyers.
Between the cycle tops, a shallower peak and trough that lasted a few months can be seen too. That does not represent the cycle top, but does imply holders thought it was a top. We can see this during October 2013, October 2016, and April 2020.
The previous two peaks came within months of BTC’s halving, showing another wave of accumulation around the halving that would lead to a distribution after a bull run.
Hence, a similar peak in the coming months after April 2024’s halving would mean that the cycle top is around a year away.
Puell Multiple and BTC market’s timing
The Puell multiple can outline market tops and greater selling pressure from miners. Like the UTXO bands, it too formed peaks between cycles to signal miners realizing profits before the halving to stay in the business.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
The most recent peak occurred in March 2024, again corroborating the idea that Bitcoin is only halfway through its current cycle.