Popular crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen is warning that one macroeconomic data could derail Bitcoin’s (BTC) breakout above $70,000.
Cowen tells his 873,000 followers on the social media platform X that he believes Bitcoin’s reaction around the $70,000 psychological level will determine whether BTC follows the cyclical or the monetary policy view.
The analyst points out that while Bitcoin has historically rallied during Q4 of a halving year, the anticipated breakout surge could be delayed by months if BTC follows the monetary policy view by taking a cue from macroeconomic data.
“The cyclical view of BTC says it should go up in Q4 2024.
The monetary policy view says down (and then up in early 2025).
While it made sense to fade the cyclical view back in March, it is more of a toss-up now between which view prevails.
If BTC can get back above $70,000 on more than just a wick, then it favors the cyclical view prevailing.
If BTC fails at $70,000 (or just below it) again and starts heading back to $64,000, then the monetary policy view will likely prevail and the breakout won’t happen until 2025.”
According to Cowen, BTC’s next big move may hinge on US labor market data, slated for release on November 1st.
“The most likely thing to dictate short-term direction is the labor market data release this week.”
Earlier this month, Cowen said that Bitcoin will likely witness bearish conditions if the US unemployment rate continues to rise to close out the year. The analyst recently noted that investors are likely waiting for the upcoming jobs report data before deciding whether to dive into BTC.
“The market will want to know if the recent move down in unemployment is a new trend, or still a stochastic move higher.”
Should the labor market numbers disappoint, Cowen warns that it will put BTC in a position to witness a capitulation event.
“BTC could have another quick dump (like April and August of this year), that would likely finalize in December.”
In April, BTC corrected by about 18% and pulled back by as much as 25% in August.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $71,239, up nearly 5% in the past day.
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