The crypto markets are heading towards the last few days of the bullish Uptober, while the expected returns remained restricted at around 7%, similar to September. September is often called ‘Rektember’ as the markets usually face a major price slash. However, the monthly trade remained within the bullish range, while the October trade, which attracted double-digit gains, underwent a small rise. This suggests the market dynamics are changing, which may also change the 4-year cycle of the markets.
The average monthly returns of Bitcoin display a wider picture of the next probable action for the rest of 2024. The data from Coinglass suggests the average monthly returns since September are just above 7%. Meanwhile, only three months have been reported in a loss since 2023, and if the next couple of months print bullish candles, the market dynamics are expected to change.
The monthly close is near, and hence the market volatility is expected to have a major change, but currently, the volume has slashed to half. With this, the volatility is not expected to rise, which may keep the markets in a standstill position till the end. In such a scenario, the Bitcoin price is expected to remain consolidated below the crucial resistance and close another monthly trade within the same accumulated zone.
The Bitcoin price started the monthly trade with an 8% pullback, marking the lows below $60,000. However, a rebound raised the levels by over 18%, which attracted massive bearish attention over the token. Due to this, the BTC price is expected to break below the rising wedge and trigger a huge pullback to local support close to $66,000. The stochastic RSI has turned bearish as the levels have triggered a bearish crossover, which validates the bearish claim.
Therefore, the current market dynamics have changed the trader’s perspective as the bull market is believed to get delayed. A popular analyst, Michael van de Poppe, believes the 4-year cycle is going to change, and hence, the markets may reach a peak in 2026.
“This ‘Uptober’ and the previous ‘Rektember’ have shown that this cycle is more complex and different than the previous cycles.
I think that this is the cycle we’ll get rid of the 4-year cycles.
It’s all depending on liquidity and interest rates.
If those keep falling and governments continue to print money, just like China is doing, then the high is way higher than we all expect and the bull market on Bitcoin and Altcoins will be longer than we all expect.
To be honest, I suspect that we’re peaking in 2026,”