After breaking above the 7-month-old consolidation, the Bitcoin price is step by step heading towards its ATH at $73,750. The price just marked levels past $69,500, suggesting the next big move could be above $70,000 anytime from now. With this, the probability of marking a new ATH above $74,500 emerges, which may occur much before the end of 2024.
Having said that, will the BTC price reach $100K in 2024? If yes, will $100K be the peak of the current bull cycle?
Bitcoin’s price had been largely determined by the simple logic of demand and supply. A rise in demand with low supply raised the price, whereas a drop in demand with an increase in supply brought it down. However, after the 2021 bull run, Bitcoin gained huge attention and raised its adoption as well. Therefore, several factors impact the demand and supply of Bitcoin, which in turn has a huge influence on its value.
Open Interest Hits $40 Billion
Open interest is used to track the outstanding derivatives contracts in options or unsettled futures. It helps to understand where the liquidity flow is into the contract or is moving away, which in turn offers insight into the trader’s interest in the token. Bitcoin has been the most traded token in the spot and in futures as well. The recent data shows the Bitcoin open interest is peaking as the price neared $70,000.
The steep rise in the BTC OI suggests a continued inflow of capital into the future market. This also indicates high-leveraged trading that allows the traders to control larger positions with a small amount of capital. The OI has exceeded $40 billion for the first time since December 2022, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) holding a larger share of 40%, followed by Binance & Bybit. Besides, nearly $2.4 billion in new BTC inflows was recorded over the past, which, along with a high OI, confirms the ongoing uptrend.
Huge Institutional Interest In Bitcoin
One of the major factors which has kept the BTC price elevated is the institutions entering the crypto space. After the historic approval of the spot BTC ETF by the SEC, the market dynamics for Bitcoin have changed to a large extent. Nearly 5.398% of the total circulating supply of BTC is held by these ETFs, which is over 1.1 million BTC worth over $75 billion. In just a few months, the BTC ETF holdings have reached a million, while Blackrock’s IBIT holds over 375K BTC.
Besides, countries like the U.S., U.K., China, El Salvador, and a few more have been holding over 2.5% of the total BTC circulation. As per some reports, the war with Russia drove Ukraine to legalise crypto accounts to receive donations and it currently holds over 46,000 BTC. While the accumulation by the countries and private or public companies had a short-term impact on the price, the ETF accumulation has been the major catalyst for the price volatility.
The U.S Elections with Bitcoin Campaign
The United States is about to vote for its next president and for the first time, Bitcoin has become one of the main points in their manifesto. Bitcoin got a push after former President Donald Trump considered becoming soft on cryptos and elevating the ecosystem from adversity. He is likely to replace the current SEC’s chairman, Gary Gensler, to promote a more friendly crypto approach.
Besides, the U.S. would probably hold its own Bitcoin and add up new policies attracting companies back to the country. Donald Trump has also promised to set up a Bitcoin reserve to increase Bitcoin mining. It is expected that if he wins, the BTC price will receive a fine boost and mark new highs.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Preparing To Hit $200K
The historical Bitcoin price has been rising since the start and after surpassing the previous highs close to $69,000, the bulls elevated the levels above $73,750. Currently, the price is just 8% away from its ATH as the growing market sentiments have elevated the levels close to $70,000. Now the technicals have turned in favour of the bulls and hence an extended ascending trend is expected to follow.
The above chart shows the next potential top of the upcoming BTC bull run, which is far ahead of $100K, at around $210K. The weekly MACD has triggered a bullish crossover but the RSI has triggered a bearish divergence while being within an ascending trend. Therefore, the price is expected to drop slightly below $65,000 after marking highs above $70,000. However, this move could trigger a huge bull run forming highs above $200K, somewhere in the second half of 2025.