Blockchain-based forecasting platform Polymarket reached new heights in September, reporting trading volume of $533.51 million as expectations for the 2024 US presidential election mount and major geopolitical events unfold in the Middle East.
The platform’s volume in September increased by $61.51 million compared to August, while the number of active users rose to 90,037, a 41% increase from the previous month.
With just over a month until Election Day on November 5, Polymarket’s most active market, “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” has reaped $89 million in 30-day volume, based on data from Dune Analytics.
As of October 3, the odds for front-runners Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were dead in the morning, with each candidate receiving 50% of user predictions. However, Trump took a slight lead later in the evening after President Joe Biden announced that the US was discussing retaliation for Iran’s missile attacks on Israel.
Increasing users amid new offers
Polymarket’s growth was not limited to election-related markets. The platform saw its highest daily volume on September 11, but new daily records were set on October 2 and 3, demonstrating continued momentum.
Additionally, September 30 was the platform’s busiest day, with 16,702 participants making predictions. The increase in activity brought new account registrations to a record 89,958 in September, a key indicator of the platform’s growing reach.
Despite a slight drop in open interest at the start of the month, it recovered to a peak of $136 million, underscoring strong user engagement and confidence in predictive markets. The increase was also caused by rumors of a symbolic launch.
Election betting took 84% of Polymarket’s market share in September, with election bettors accounting for 64% of the user base.
Besides the US elections, other popular markets include geopolitical and financial forecasts, such as “Israeli forces entering Lebanon in September?” and “Fed Interest Rates: November 2024.”
As the US elections approach, demand is expected to remain high, although analysts are keeping a close eye on whether yields will ease after November. The platform’s ability to diversify its markets beyond the election, as well as its focus on user experience, could play a crucial role in maintaining post-election momentum.
Growth momentum
Polymarket’s recent growth can be traced to increased interest in decentralized prediction markets, especially as global events such as elections, financial policy, and geopolitical tensions have received more public attention.
Launched as a blockchain-based prediction platform, Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events using decentralized technology, providing a transparent and secure betting environment.
Polymarket’s current growth trajectory dates back to mid-2023, fueled by increasing interest in political events – particularly the 2024 US presidential elections. As the elections approached, the platform benefited from increased demand for political prediction markets, which this year has resulted in record growth, especially in recent months.
By offering a clear, decentralized alternative to traditional betting platforms, it attracted new users looking for more control and transparency over their bets. The platform’s main appeal is its ability to provide real-time data, allowing users to make predictions as events unfold.