Polymarket has collected almost $1 billion in bets on the winner of the 2024 US presidential election.
Data from the platform currently ranks Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democratic presidential candidate, with a 50% chance of winning, backed by $135 million in wagers. Meanwhile, Republican candidate Donald Trump has a nearly 49% chance, with bets totaling nearly $150 million.
Crypto’s role in the election has boosted activity on Polymarket, with both candidates showing interest in the sector. Harris’ team has signaled a shift from the current administration’s anti-crypto stance, while Trump has found favor for his pro-crypto ventures.
With the election approaching, Polymarket has seen a surge in activity. Facts Dune Analytics shows that more than 40,000 traders are placing bets, increasing the platform’s volume almost tenfold compared to a year ago.
Challenges ahead
However, the decentralized platform needs to figure out how to maintain its volumes after the US presidential election, according to a report from the Crypto.com exchange.
On September 16 wire on
Crypto.com highlighted the issue of liquidity in prediction markets, stating that BET by Drift introduces new competition. The report highlighted that BET benefits from existing liquidity on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), not just competitors in the prediction market.
As a result, the exchange noted that Polymarket needs to increase its liquidity in sports or major crypto events because “players with existing liquidity and horizontal expansion capabilities (e.g. DEXs) could be a serious competitor in the [prediction] room.”
BET launched on Solana in August as a competitor to the Polygon-based protocol. Since then, the platform has enjoyed significant adoption and has become increasingly popular $25 million in total bets about the American elections.
Away from the BET threat, the platform must also navigate a regulatory regime that could threaten its business. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed a ban on ‘event contracts’ and recently filed a lawsuit to stop Kalshi, a US-based prediction market platform, from offering election-related betting.