As we approach the end of 2024, the emerging technology landscape bears little resemblance to that of 2019. In just five years, the whirlwind of innovation sweeping through decentralized finance, artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies has transformed our digital world at a dizzying pace. . Yet, amid this rapid progress, I see a curious phenomenon emerging: innovation fatigue.
Due to the breathtaking technological advancements of the past five years, from DeFi Summer to ChatGPT, the world in 2024 will look completely different from the world we knew before COVID.
Once set ablaze with enthusiasm, the crypto market is now struggling to maintain momentum. After briefly crossing $70,000 earlier this year, Bitcoin has retreated to around $55,000. At the same time, NVIDIA, the figurehead of the AI boom, has seen its share price fall sharply. While global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns provide partial explanations, they fail to paint the full picture.
I am not convinced that this stagnation in growth is simply a commentary on global economic uncertainty caused by high inflation. Inflation is falling almost everywhere and is expected to continue falling reject. Moreover, the Fed is about to cut interest rates this month. As a result analysts are optimistic about US GDP growth for the period 2025-2028 and expect the economy to recover strongly once interest rate cuts take effect. This optimism is based on expectations of a recovery in labor participation and solid productivity growth.
So is high inflation really a good enough answer, or is it just an issue being parroted because it’s easier than looking beyond the main talking points?
Perhaps the world is becoming oversaturated with ‘game-changing’, ‘revolutionary’ and ‘next-generation’ technology, to the point where people simply don’t care anymore.
Crypto is boring in 2024, except Bitcoin
The crypto industry in particular is struggling with a paradox. Despite technological advances, public involvement appears to be declining. The constant barrage of ‘revolutionary’ Layer-1 blockchains, ‘game-changing’ Layer-2 solutions and ‘next-generation’ AI models has created a cacophony of innovation that is increasingly difficult for the average person to parse .
Personally, I find it almost impossible to get excited about the thousandth new DeFi project or the layer 2 press release that lands in my inbox every day, desperately trying to convince me that the project is revolutionary. Even if the technology is extremely cool, I ask myself, “Can this achieve the network effect needed to be relevant?”
Most of the excitement in 2024 has been focused on spot ETFs in the US, hoping that the price will eventually follow the levels of gold two decades ago. However, that’s exactly how long it took for gold to take off after the first gold ETF launched in the US. I’ve analyzed this in the past, and while I don’t think it will take that long for Bitcoin to eclipse gold’s performance, it’s now clear that won’t happen this cycle.
Outside of ETFs, I believe Bitcoin is still the most exciting aspect of the broader crypto industry in 2024. DeFi is finally coming to Bitcoin, explorations of how it can be used to secure proof-of-stake chains, alternative assets like Ordinals, Runes, TAP, and BRC-20, and the growing interest in how Bitcoin can be used as a replacement for kinetic warfare, are some of the most underrated developments of the year.
Bitcoin is a globally distributed timestamp and event sequencing network that will truly change the world in ways few realize. Instead, the market seems to be more interested in memecoins on Solana and Base for some reason.
Maybe Bitcoin innovation isn’t sexy enough right now, or it’s because there aren’t any “huge profits” to be had in a short period of time. Either way, the industry is likely stagnating out of boredom, while pump-and-dump memecoins generate interest.
Furthermore, spectacular failures within the crypto space, such as the collapse of Terra Luna and FTX, have eroded confidence and enthusiasm. These setbacks, coupled with high-profile security breaches such as the Wormhole hack, have made many wary of embracing the next big thing in blockchain technology.
AI is like a cheat code that makes the game of life less interesting
This sentiment extends beyond crypto. If reported by McKinsey, While generative AI saw a staggering 700% increase in Google searches between 2022 and 2023, overall investments in tech stocks fell 30-40% last year to around $570 billion. This dichotomy suggests that while interest in cutting-edge technology remains high, there is a growing reluctance to commit resources amid the relentless pace of change.
The psychological impact of this innovation overload is profound. Sentiment analysis since 2019 reveals a growing one ambivalence towards technological breakthroughs. The once exciting promise of each new development is increasingly met with a shrug, as if to say, “What’s next?”
This apathy may stem from the feeling that current AI models are already so advanced that further improvements seem incremental rather than revolutionary. Now we look to the future and say to ourselves, “AI will be able to do all that soon, so I don’t really care until the models reach AGI and can act as my digital servants and do what I ask. them 24/7”? The audience imagination could leapfrog to the possibility of AGI, making interim advances seem less important in comparison.
2024 from the British government questionnaire on public attitudes toward AI provides further insight. While there is recognition of the potential benefits of AI, there is also widespread concern about job losses and the erosion of human skills. These concerns about the future may contribute to a reluctance to fully engage with emerging technologies.
What happens next? A boring life?
As we navigate this period of innovation fatigue, it is important to recognize that progress often happens in cycles. Periods of rapid progress are usually followed by consolidation and reflection. Rather than seeing this as a negative trend, it could represent a necessary pause – an opportunity for society to catch up on the technological leaps of recent years.
This moment presents an opportunity for the emerging technology industry to refocus on practical applications and tangible benefits rather than chasing the next big breakthrough. It’s a time to build trust, address ethical issues and show how these innovations can meaningfully improve lives.
The challenge now is not just to innovate, but to innovate responsibly, with a keen eye for social impact and long-term sustainability. Only by doing this can we reignite the public’s imagination and enthusiasm for the transformative potential of technology.
The next all-time high for Bitcoin, therefore, may not depend on short-term holders, nation-state adoption, Bitcoin-owning banks, or regulatory changes, but in fact on allowing the world to finally settle into this “new normal.” situation can arise. -2020, in which AI and blockchain are already changing so much of what we once knew.
For example, if we extrapolate to what is possible even with current AI models, it feels like we are playing a computer game with cheats enabled – something that is fun for a while, but eventually becomes boring due to the lack of challenge and future. progress.
We have to accept that this is not a ‘cheat mode’. This is the world we live in now.
We have to accept and embrace it so that we can get excited about new things again. However, there is also the risk that continued improvements in AI will mean that we never get the chance to stop and think again, and that we are only left to deal with the feeling of not being able to feeling comfortable with the way things are.