Foreign crypto firms might be the only losers under a second Trump presidency: Bloomberg

The crypto industry has been holding its breath for a second Donald Trump presidency since the former president vowed to end President Joe Biden’s “crusade against crypto.”

Trump’s chances of winning the US elections in November have increased since his failed assassination attempt last week. According to a poll released this week by CBS News, 52% of voters are likely to favor Trump for a second presidency.

While the crypto industry is waiting with bated breath, this may not be good news for foreign crypto companies. Foreign crypto exchanges such as Binance, OKX and Deribit may feel a pinch in their market shares as their US peers prosper under a Trump term, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

These overseas exchanges had seen their market shares soar as their US rivals had to halt or forego the launch of some of the most popular crypto services. With more crypto-friendly regulations, as Trump has promised, US exchanges could launch trading services with more leverage or crypto futures and options contracts with more expiration dates.

Bitmain, the largest manufacturer of Bitcoin mining machines, could also face challenges under a potential Trump presidency. Most US-listed Bitcoin miners currently use mining rigs from the Chinese conglomerate. US rivals like Block and Auradine selling new chips and machines to Bitcoin mining companies will further add to the challenges facing Bitmain.

Nearly every American crypto company will benefit from a Trump presidency

Market participants and observers believe that almost every American crypto company will benefit from a second Trump presidency. Earlier this week, Jefferies analysts suggested that Trump’s “overt support” for Bitcoin and crypto could benefit crypto stocks.

Christian Catalini, founder of MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab, told Bloomberg:

“Almost everyone in the US would be a winner if they are willing to follow the new rules when they are implemented.”

Potential winners include both Bitcoin miners and crypto companies that faced challenges trying to go public in the US

In June, Trump held a meeting with Bitcoin miners, after which he posted on his Truth Social account that Bitcoin miners would be “our last line of defense against a CBDC.” [central bank digital currency].” He added that his ambition is to ensure that all remaining Bitcoins are “MADE IN THE USA!!!” are.

Under the Biden presidency and Gary Gensler’s leadership of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), crypto companies have had less success in pursuing an initial public offering (IPO). For example, USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin issuer Circle scrapped its plans to go public over a year ago, but subsequently filed for an IPO in January 2024.

Kraken, the second-largest US cryptocurrency exchange, and Northern Data, an artificial intelligence provider turned crypto miner, are planning an initial public offering. Under Trump’s presidency, these companies could finally get the green light to list, especially as the former president is expected to replace Gensler with someone more crypto-friendly.

It’s worth noting that Kraken founder Jesse Powell has donated $1 million to Trump’s campaign. However, Powell is one of many in the crypto industry to support Trump’s re-election bid.

Crypto exchanges, which are increasingly facing banking challenges due to stricter regulations, could see their pool of banking options expand as regulations ease under Trump.

Furthermore, Trump has vowed never to allow the issuance of a digital dollar – a good news for the crypto industry, which sees a CBDC as a potential way for the government to expand financial supervision. In February, Trump called CBDCs a “very dangerous thing.”

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